Science for Policy Briefs: COVID-19, tourist behaviour, jobs and policy options

This policy brief displays an estimation for the number of jobs at risk in EU27 in 2020, as a result of the slowdown of tourism activities.

Abstract

• The COVID-19 health crisis is affecting consumer willingness to travel and destination preferences.
• We predict a decline of tourist arrivals in EU27 between 38% and 68% in 2020.
• Subsequently, between 6.6 and 11.7 million jobs could be at risk of reduction in working hours or permanent jobs losses in 2020.
• A strong heterogeneous impact between and within EU27 countries is expected.
• The solution is likely to be local and European, calling for efficient multi-level governance.
• Reshaping Smart Specialisation Strategies (S3) towards sustainability (S4) may play a key role in the recovery process.
• Opportunities exist in new digital and green solutions and business models.
• Diversifying tourism value chains and making places less tourism dependent can increase resilience.
• Optimal use of support programmes can speed up short, medium and long-term recovery.